Thursday, May 28, 2009

Divergent Behavior of TARP Preferred's

I'm starting to notice some divergent behavior of the TARP preferreds relative to the underlying common shares. It used to be (a month or more ago) that when the common would swoon so too would the preferreds. Now, when the common sells-off, the preferred either don't move, or they move up. This is consistent with what I'm seeing in the corporate bond markets, too. For example, junk bonds seems to be out-performing the SP500 going back to even before the March lows. And high grade corporates are really out-performing the SP500. This is what we should see at an equity market bottom -- at least a bottom that lasts for at least three months. :<)